Like on Facebook

The future of Afghanistan, American ambitions and prospects for Pakistan

The future of Afghanistan, American ambitions and prospects for Pakistan
At the Presidential Palace in Kabul, US President Ashraf Ghani was sworn in for another term on Monday in the presence of special and NATO ambassadors and military officials, and suddenly the capital's explosions erupted. President Ashraf Ghani unveiled his jacket on the sound of the blasts and said that under this jacket there is no protective shield, only clothing, it is a sacrifice for the Afghan people, their leader is ready to sacrifice for the country. Is.
On the other hand, Abdullah Abdullah, who participated in the contested election with Ashraf Ghani, took the oath of office of the country in the general public, not recognizing the election results and asked if he would win the election victory of Ashraf Ghani. Suppose democracy will end in the country. Abdullah also called for a re-negotiation to end the political deadlock.
It should be remembered here that the two presidents and the two oath-taking ceremonies in the same country took place despite strong efforts by the United States to break the political deadlock, and the two leaders declared themselves elected president of the country and swore at each other. Also send invitation to attend.
Throughout the night, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad was trying to convince the two leaders. It was also reported that Abdullah had postponed the ceremony and that Zalmay Khalilzad's meeting with Ashraf Ghani was ongoing. I joined and gave them certification.
For these leaders who were grieving the nation and claiming sacrifice, the people did not show much enthusiasm in the elections and the voting rate was very low, and then there were allegations of electoral fraud when the counting and the results were delayed.

About six months after the September elections, the parties failed to find a political solution. During the overnight talks before the oath, Ashraf Ghani offered Abdullah Abdullah 40% of ministries and cabinet oversight in the cabinet, but Abdullah stayed directly on Abdullah's authority. The victims thus played a vital role in promoting the seriousness of political differences in Kabul.

The scenario follows the signing of a peace agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban in Doha. Where there was hope for peace following the deal, there were fears of such differences.
It should also be remembered that the US officials who had given Ashraf Ghani's oath-taking ceremony and signed it were excluded from the Doha agreement. Ashraf Ghani, who was out of the limelight on flies to be removed from milk, made the first attempt to sabotage the peace deal by refusing to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners under Doha treaty. Ashraf Ghani also saw some success in the effort as the Taliban targeted government forces in several Afghan cities and the United States was forced to launch drones to save those forces, thus launching Taliban missile missiles.

The initial clash was to wrap up the entire battle again, but firefighting was then attempted from both sides. US Secretary of Defense Mark Asper, in a statement to the Senate on the fight that broke out immediately after the signing of the agreement, said that the Afghan Taliban are following the agreement by not attacking US forces, but the condition for reducing violence is not being met.

Keeping all the Afghan Taliban on board is a challenge. This group also has hard work and flexibility. I think these two factions of the Taliban are also in conflict with each other. Defending Afghan allies will continue to serve. Firefighting efforts painted and violence reduced.

Now, the assertion of presidency of the country has been raised by Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah simultaneously. The Afghan Taliban is a party to the interfaith dialogue, who will be in the delegation to represent the rest of Afghanistan, and on what basis will it be representative? This is a major dispute that will be decided only after the inter-Afghan talks begin. This is a major hurdle in the negotiations that the United States understands.

If inter-Afghan negotiations fail, Afghanistan can go to another civil war. The agreement between the United States and the Taliban seems to suggest that the United States does not care much about a new civil war in Afghanistan, and that the US president is focusing solely on American voters. The US president confirmed the secret document and its contents, citing the possibility of a Taliban government in Afghanistan in the future.
f inter-Afghan talks do not succeed and the Taliban wage war in trying to form the Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, regional powers will also be involved in this civil war, and Afghanistan will once again become the stronghold of regional conflict.

The Iranian Foreign Minister has already said that the US and Taliban agreement has no legal status, the US has no right to determine the future of the Afghan people. India is already worried about being dropped from the deal and promises to assist the Ashraf Ghani administration.

In the event of this civil war, Pakistan will be affected by the conflict on its western border. Pakistan is fully aware of these situations, so prior to the signing ceremony, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood said that Pakistan wants a responsible withdrawal of US from Afghanistan. The Foreign Minister's statement indicated the dissatisfaction of the Americans after the Soviet withdrawal.

Following the Doha agreement, Ashraf Ghani, US Secretary of Defense Mark Asper and NATO Secretary General issued a joint US-Afghan declaration on the peace process, saying the US should not use each other's land between Afghanistan and Pakistan against each other. Will facilitate contracts for Pakistan's response to this was clear that Afghanistan should speak directly to any deal, the US is preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan while Afghanistan and Pakistan have always been close neighbors.

The agreement between the United States and the Afghan Taliban is just one part of the original deal to show the world, a major part of the deal is a secret that may never come to fruition. Members of the US Congress are also expressing reservations over the secret documents.

Afghan Taliban spokesman Sohail Shaheen denied any confidential documents, but they had to be acknowledged after being confirmed by US officials. US Secretary of Defense Mark Asper was asked if the 4-page agreement does not contain words of violence reduction, but Mark Asper said those words may be included in the accompanying documents. This is how Mark Asper acknowledged confidential documents. Senator Linzie Graham, the largest supporter of the US president's Congress and Congressman Liz Chaney, did not refrain from expressing reservations over the secret documents.

'These documents are seen by the Afghan Taliban, and I think the American people too have the right to know what the Trump administration has signed with the Afghan Taliban in their name,' Congresswoman Liz Chaney said at a congressional hearing. Is? Senator Linsey Graham, on the other hand, has expressed distrust of the Afghan Taliban.

But US President Donald Trump sees the deal with the Afghan Taliban as the first step toward ending America's never ending wars and seeks a second term in the November election by fulfilling an election promise. The ambitions of the US president are estimated by Secretary of Defense Mark Asper's announcement of the March 10 withdrawal. The US will reduce the number of troops from 14,000 to 8,000 in 3 months.

There is also an idea about a secret agreement between the United States and the Taliban that will not lead to a complete withdrawal, but the US will deploy troops for counter-terrorism operations. These forces will be responsible for the operations against ISIS, after the 19 years of war, the US and Taliban will take over as a friend or ally.
In the early stages of the deal, the Afghan Taliban will be responsible for preventing ISIS attacks on US and foreign forces from its occupied territories. The parties to the agreement are the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The agreement apparently includes clarification that the United States does not agree, but the agreement is made with the same party. The United States recognizes the Taliban government, which is a major issue for Afghan factions and the rest of the world.

When US politicians and Democratic presidential candidates talk of withdrawal from Afghanistan, the fighters talk about the withdrawal. Combat troops are not a military term, but a political term, and CIA operatives, military trainers, advisers, intelligence coordinators, air strike forward observers, drone operators, logistics personnel deployed in embassies fall under this term, But yes the Special Forces do not join these fighters.

The veterans' group Common Defense convened a conference last year to end wars against US President Donald Trump and drafted a pledge to end wars and bring troops back, with only 2 of the Democratic presidential candidates signed and One of the two women candidates is out of the race, and the other candidate is Bernie Sanders, who is still in the race, while the rest of the Democrat candidates are adhering to his policy of avoiding it. This whole situation reflects on American politicians' weak resolve to end wars. Then the candidates who signed the agreement failed to provide a clear roadmap for the withdrawal of the army.

Not only is Washington's political commitment to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan weak, but the Pentagon and the US Establishment are not in favor of complete withdrawal. The US needs all the bases in Afghanistan to maintain pressure on China, Russia and Iran. The Pentagon is preparing for a superpower contest following an agreement with the Taliban, and if the US vacates its Afghan military base, it may lose a key strategic position in the superpower competition. Then even if the US withdraws troops, the contractor's guarantee is not written anywhere.

It is also confirmed that the United States has begun the preparation of the Special Operations Forces Network before the military withdrawal from Afghanistan. The United States is bringing down 14,000 troops to 8,500, but it is not yet clear how many personnel will be deployed for the network. The US general has suggested a counterinsurgency force consisting of 3 to 5,000 personnel in the event of withdrawal from Afghanistan. US officials, on the condition of anonymity, have also been telling the media that a 14-month withdrawal is a commitment.

US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad has made it clear at the Munich Security Conference that 3,000 soldiers have to be evacuated in 135 days. This description of Khalilzad is not part of the deal publicly, but is probably part of a confidential document.

The deal that US President Donald Trump has signed is a gamble. If Trump becomes president again, he can try to get the deal done, but if he fails to gamble, the winning new president can review the deal.

If the peace deal fails at any point, the Taliban will accelerate attacks on Afghan forces and Afghan forces are unable to defend themselves without US assistance. Under these circumstances, Afghan forces may be shattered in the event of a complete failure, and Tajik and other ethnic groups may again become part of the civil war, and the Afghan Taliban can unilaterally announce the establishment of the United Arab Emirates. In this case, both parties in Congress can pass a resolution or bill against US withdrawal, and US President Trump can declare a military withdrawal until real peace.

All these possibilities will never go unnoticed by the US, Pakistani and other international leadership. Given these possibilities, Pakistan will have to play a more active role in the peace process, so that the situation on the western border will not deteriorate again and new refugees will not enter Pakistan with a new set of problems.

The US and other powers will be forced to make concessions to Pakistan for this active role. It is under discussion in the US that Pakistan should be offered a free trade agreement in exchange for that role. The US President also repeatedly points to this as a way of increasing trade with Pakistan.

But it all depends on Pakistani authorities how they use this opportunity to achieve regional and international interests. If Pakistan plays its address correctly, the United States can offer Pakistan several concessions, including a free trade agreement, until the withdrawal of 3,000 soldiers in March.

Post a Comment

0 Comments